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The publication sheds light on blocks to the economy in Mediterranean Arab countries. With chronically low growth rates, these countries face an enormous influx of a mainly young, urban and qualified active population over the next 15 years.
The author starts with a standard macro-economic analysis and takes us further and further down through the social and economic layers: structural features (demography, education, poverty…), institutional (how does economic confidence come about?), political economy of reform (what kind of social contract can there be today?), emerging trends…
This multi-criteria process enables us to revisit a number of presuppositions. These countries are, in fact, going through one of the quickest demographic transitions observed. Their monetary poverty rates are the lowest and they have invested the highest share of GDP in education in all developing countries. They do not lack financial resources, they even export them. “Governance” and the investment climate are not particularly deteriorated compared with their income levels. The reluctance of local enterprises to open up their capital accounts for the very low level of foreign investment.
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